A preface to the newsletter: It was a great week for the stock market and a fairly quiet one for the headlines as well. The correction in stocks is officially over, however the conflict with Iran that caused the selloff has yet to reach it's conclusion, so volatility could easily come back. Be cautious, it's too soon to celebrate a victory even though the stock market seems to be doing that.
In this week's newsletter I touch on some of the recent good news from banks' earnings reports and inflation data - the US consumer is still spending at a healthy rate. I also revisit a past article about Private Credit and why I'm concerned with the recent rule change allowing it to be offered as an investment option in retirement plan accounts. Lastly, I also included an educational piece on the effectiveness of counting calories vs intermittent fasting from the Longevity Science Foundation - I've tried both and neither is easy!
As always, please don't be shy about sharing feedback and please feel free to forward this on to anyone else who might find it interesting.
Have a nice week ahead,
Kevin
Stocks
Stocks had their best week in months, with the S&P 500 rallying 4.5% to finish the week above 7,000 closing at a new record high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was even stronger, climbing 6.7% this week and posting its 11th straight day of gains.
Bonds
Bonds were relatively calm. The 10-year Treasury (a common benchmark for bond rates) ended the week near 4.26%, roughly where it started. Bonds tend to rally when investors get nervous, however jitters have calmed over the past two weeks and the sentiment is shifting back towards optimism.
The world is playing red light/green light in the Strait of Hormuz (red light as of Saturday)
The recent ceasefire with Iran has caused the animal spirits of the stock market to roar back to life. That coupled with the deluge of cash from tax refunds last week and you have a recipe for a short term rally. It’s important to keep in mind though that the geopolitical situation is still evolving and could change on a moment’s notice. In fact just this weekend Iran fired on at least two container ships and the US seized an Iranian vessel. It would be foolish to believe that this conflict is near a resolution.
Iran’s military is managed using the “mosaic” method, which is a disparate group of units each operating independently with their own localized leadership. Given that most of the senior Iranian leadership has been killed, there is very little centralized command and that makes it difficult to communicate orders to troops in the field. Even though we have a truce in Lebanon and negotiations resuming in Pakistan, it will still be difficult to coordinate a peaceful solution with hardline leaders commanding isolated cells. We have seen this situation before: Iraq after the collapse of Saddam Hussein’s regime, Afghanistan after the retreat of the Taliban, Libya after the fall of Gaddafi. Each case was different but had a similar ending - prolonged instability, suffering, and questioning whether America is any safer now than we were before. I believe that Iran will go the same route, even if we come to a peace agreement and get the terms we want, that does not mean that the conflict is over. So with that in mind, invest wisely, and don’t assume that the ceasefire will bring a permanent end to the hostilities.
Big banks kicked off the earnings season with strong results
JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley all reported better-than-expected profits for the first quarter of 2026. Corporate profits are holding up better than many feared. Analysts estimate S&P 500 companies are on pace to grow earnings nearly 14% compared to last year, actually higher than forecasts made before the conflict began. This reinforces why we stay invested even during uncertain times, companies kept earning money even through a period of conflict and market jitters.
Inflation data came in cooler than expected
March's producer price data (what businesses pay for goods before passing costs to consumers) came in lighter than anticipated, and oil's big -13% drop this week should push prices at the pump lower in coming weeks. The Fed is still holding interest rates steady and is watching closely, with markets now expecting at least one quarter percent rate cut before year-end. This is a pleasant surprise from the forecast two weeks ago that the Fed would need to raise rates to combat inflation being driven up by higher energy prices.
"The U.S. economy remained resilient in the quarter, with consumers still earning and spending, and businesses still healthy. Several tailwinds are supporting this resiliency, including increased fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation, AI-driven capital investment, and the Fed’s asset purchases.“ - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase
Contrary to the negative headlines, Jamie Dimon lists four "tailwinds" supporting the US economy right now. Here's what he means:
Increased fiscal stimulus: The government has been spending money (on infrastructure, defense, etc.), which pumps dollars into the economy and supports growth. Think of it like a shot of energy.
Benefits of deregulation: Fewer rules on businesses can make it easier and cheaper for companies to operate and expand. Whether you agree with deregulation or not, Dimon is saying it's currently giving businesses a boost.
AI-driven capital investment: Companies are pouring enormous amounts of money into artificial intelligence building data centers, buying chips, and upgrading systems. That spending creates jobs and economic activity across many industries, not just tech.
The Fed's asset purchases: This one is a bit technical. The Federal Reserve has been buying Treasury bonds (essentially injecting money into the financial system) to keep markets running smoothly. It's a tool they use to prevent credit from tightening up too much. Think of it as the Fed adding grease to the engine of the US economy.
An Update on Private Credit
Around six months ago I wrote a piece about my concern over the hidden risks in the private credit market. At the time, private credit was one of the hotter topics on Wall Street and investment firms were lowering their minimums to be able to offer it to smaller retail investors. Now we are beginning to see the cracks in the foundation of the private credit market, with firms like Blackstone and Blue Owl reporting investors demanding redemptions (liquidating) at the highest rate ever. However as those investors are walking out one door, new investors are walking in another, with recent regulatory changes allowing private credit funds to be offered in retirement plan accounts like 401ks. The smart money is looking to offload their private credit funds to unobservant retirement account owners, so keep an eye on how your 401k is invested. If this isn’t an example of the greater fool theory, then I don’t know what is! I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - I’m concerned that risks in the private credit market could precipitate the next big financial crisis.
What is private credit?
When a company needs to borrow money, it usually goes to a bank or issues a bond that trades publicly. Private credit is a different path: a company borrows directly from a private fund (like one run by Blackstone, Apollo, or Blue Owl) instead of through a bank or the public markets. The deal is done quietly, between the borrower and the lender, without the general public being involved. These loans typically offer higher rates to lenders, because the businesses have been deemed too risky to be able to borrow money from a bank. Think of it like the legal equivalent of borrowing money from a loan shark.
How big is the private credit market?
It's enormous and still growing. The global private credit market is approximately $3.5 trillion in outstanding loans and it was roughly $500 billion just ten years ago. Projections suggest private credit loans could balloon to $4.5 trillion by 2030. After the 2008 financial crisis, new banking regulations forced banks to pull back from riskier lending. That created a gap in financing, especially for mid-size businesses, that private credit stepped in to fill. Investors also loved it because it offered higher returns than traditional bonds when interest rates were near zero.
What is the current state of the private credit market?
Private credit is entering 2026 facing its most challenging environment since the 2008 financial crisis, with global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and signs of late-cycle stress in corporate credit. Specifically, while the headline default rate has remained below 2%, once selective defaults and other debt restructurings are factored in, the true default rate is closer to 5%. Furthermore many private credit firms are creating new funds to refinance old ones, obfuscating the default rate and muddying the waters. That creates a meaningful gap between what looks good on paper and what's actually happening underneath.
What should investors be worried about?
Lack of liquidity. Unlike stocks or bonds, you generally can't sell a private credit investment quickly. If you need your money back, you may have to wait, sometimes for years.
Hidden stress in borrowers. There were a series of high-profile leveraged loan defaults in late 2025 and the rising use of "payment-in-kind" arrangements (where borrowers pay interest with more debt instead of cash). When a borrower starts paying you with more IOUs instead of real cash, that's a warning sign.
Risk spreading to everyday investors. Private credit used to be strictly for big institutions: pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, and large investors who could afford to take long periods of losses. Recent regulatory changes however now allow private credit managers to sell to retirement plan accounts (401k, 403b, etc) meaning everyday retirement savers may increasingly be exposed to it without understanding the risks.
Interconnectedness with the broader system. Private credit funds and traditional financial institutions are lending to each other, which could heighten contagion risk in a downturn or credit crunch. This scenario is not unlike the mortgage bond crisis of 2008, where faulty loans were packaged into obscure investment products and sold to the broader public. The greater the private credit market becomes, the more of a ripple effect it will have on the rest of the economy when the bubble bursts.
A different way to think about agency in long term health & philanthropy
Intermittent Fasting (IF) vs. Calorie Restriction (CR)
What are these two approaches? Calorie restriction (CR) means consistently eating fewer calories each day. Intermittent fasting (IF) means eating only during certain windows of time, such as skipping breakfast, eating just two days a week, or alternating fasting and normal days. They're different strategies, but they trigger many of the same healthy changes in the body, essentially nudging your metabolism into a more youthful state.
What does the research show? Both approaches improve the same markers of health: blood pressure, cholesterol, blood sugar, and inflammation. Studies in humans and primates show that calorie restriction can actually slow the rate at which your cells age, which is a meaningful finding. Intermittent fasting produces very similar results, but when researchers carefully matched the total calories eaten, IF offered no additional advantage over simply eating less overall. The two approaches are roughly equal in outcome, they just get there differently.
Which is easier to stick with? That's where they diverge. Many people find intermittent fasting easier to follow day-to-day because it doesn't require constant calorie counting, you just watch the clock. However, strict fasting schedules (like alternate-day fasting) can be tough to maintain long-term, and one study found that LDL cholesterol (the bad kind) crept up slightly in people doing alternate-day fasting after a year, which is worth noting.
Are there any risks? Both are safe for healthy adults when done thoughtfully. The main watch-out for either approach is muscle loss, especially as we get older. That's why pairing either strategy with regular strength training and adequate protein intake is important, otherwise you risk losing muscle along with fat, which is the opposite of what we want for healthy aging.
The bottom line: Calorie restriction has a slight edge in the research, mainly because it has more long-term human data behind it, including evidence of slowed cellular aging. But intermittent fasting is a perfectly valid and often more practical path to the same destination. Neither has been proven to extend human lifespan outright, but both can meaningfully extend your healthspan - the years you spend feeling well, staying active, and remaining independent. That's the part that really matters.
To learn more, go to: Intermittent Fasting (IF) vs. Calorie Restriction (CR)
The stock market is back at its high-water mark again and the bond market seems to have stabilized in light of the ceasefire with Iran. Let's hope that cooler heads prevail and a lasting peace can be forged, however I am not optimistic. Prepare for more volatility ahead as the negotiations continue and we see the effects of the energy supply chain disruption continue to reverberate through the global economy.
Companies and consumers have remained resilient, and that has kept the US economy humming along despite numerous efforts to knock it of kilter. Inflation is still a concern and will remain one for the foreseeable future. The good news is that US consumers haven't yet cut back much on spending, but inevitably rising costs of necessary goods like energy and groceries will have a stymying effect on discretionary spending like entertainment or restaurants. The big questions are when and how much?
Be wary of private credit. If you are offered a private credit fund in your retirement plan account, do your homework before you invest. Understand the risks, the liquidity, the default rate, the costs, and the exit strategy if you need to get out. Remember the greater fool theory, or else become one!
Have a nice week ahead!
Kevin