A preface to the newsletter: It was a good week for stocks as company earnings beat estimates and the ceasefire with Iran was extended indefinitely. Investors are certainly feeling more optimistic than they were a month ago! The conflict isn't over yet and I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch, but things seem to be moving in a more positive direction.
In this week's newsletter I touch on the good news concerning the Iranian ceasefire, company earnings, and the DoJ dropping the investigation into Jerome Powell. I also give an overview of the tariff refund process that recently became available and why we as consumers aren't likely to get anything back. In this week's Longevity Science Foundation spotlight, I cover an article they published about the symptoms of heart disease in women, and how those signs can often be overlooked. Heart disease is the number one cause of death in America and if you or someone you know is ever experiencing any symptoms, don't wait - go to the ER immediately.
As always, please don't be shy about sharing feedback and please feel free to forward this on to anyone else who might find it interesting.
Have a nice week ahead,
Kevin
Stocks
Stocks had a strong week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both finished Friday at all-time highs, lifted by an indefinite extension to the ceasefire in Iran and a solid wave of corporate earnings. Although we still haven't seen a return to normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz, mood on Wall Street has shifted from cautious to quietly optimistic.
Bonds
Bonds were flat for the week; essentially unchanged but still elevated, as oil prices near $100 a barrel keep inflation worries alive. While bond rates stay high, bond prices will stay under pressure.
Iran ceasefire extended
President Trump extended the U.S.–Iran ceasefire indefinitely, and Iran's foreign minister is scheduled to meet with negotiators in Islamabad soon. Markets rallied on the hope that a deal is getting closer. While this may seem like a reason to celebrate, I'm watching this carefully, oil shipping routes are still disrupted, and a real resolution could take weeks or months.
Corporate earnings came in better than expected
UnitedHealth, Boeing, Tesla, GE, Intel, and Procter & Gamble all reported earnings that beat estimates. Companies are still growing their profits and strong earnings are the foundation of a healthy stock market. We will see more earnings announcements next week and I'm keeping an eye on reports from Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet.
The investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell was dropped
This clears the way for Kevin Warsh to become the new Fed chair next month, removing some uncertainty about the future of Fed policy. Warsh is viewed as business-friendly and unlikely to make sudden policy changes, however many expect him to be torn between President Trump's desire to lower rates and inflationary pressure from high energy prices.
"Until the war gets bad enough to impact the bond market, don't expect it to matter to the stock market.“ - Jim Cramer, CNBC Mad Money Host and former fund manager
The bond market is where the "smart money" lives: big institutions, pension funds, and foreign governments. When they get genuinely scared, they flee to the safety of US Treasury bonds. That rush of buying pushes bond yields down sharply. So far bond yields have barely flinched during the U.S.-Iran war, the 10-year Treasury is sitting calmly around 4.31%. That tells us that the big players aren't truly panicked. The war may be leading the headlines right now, but it has not led to a financial crisis yet. Until oil prices stay high enough long enough to push inflation up and force bond investors to reprice everything, the stock market will keep looking past it.
How will tariff refunds work and can I get one?
The US Government Portal for Tariff reimbursement opened Monday, April 20th. American companies may apply for refunds on tariffs that were ruled illegal. It is estimated that $166 billion in tariffs was paid by 300,000 importers in over 53 million shipments. Importers now can apply to be refunded the tariffs that they paid. This money will provide many importers a lifeline and they will likely pay down debts and build a reserve to hedge against future tariff uncertainty.
Who gets the refund?
The refunds go to whoever directly paid US Customs as the importer of record, usually a company, not an individual consumer. Think Walmart, Target, Nike, small manufacturers, or shipping companies like UPS and FedEx - businesses that physically imported goods and wrote the check to Customs.
What about regular consumers?
Here's the frustrating part: if you want a tariff refund, you'll have to rely on the goodwill of companies to pass those refunds along. Some companies like UPS and FedEx, where the tariff was listed as a separate line item on your bill, are promising to pass the money back directly. But for everyday retail purchases where the tariff was just baked into the price? The best that we can hope for is that companies pass along the returned tariffs as lower prices rather than direct refunds, but there's no requirement for them to do so.
Will this actually go smoothly?
Probably not. Trade lawyers are warning of bureaucratic hurdles and the possibility of a last-minute appeal by the Trump administration. The current process is for importers to submit their bank account information and a declaration of the entries for which they paid tariffs to an online portal called CAPE. CBP says it will issue refunds within 60 to 90 days, although processing issues could make it longer and importers are pessimistic that the government is not going to make this easy.
What does this mean for my portfolio?
If you own shares in large retailers, this could be a meaningful earnings boost. Analysts estimate Walmart is due $10.2 billion, Target $2.2 billion, and Nike around $1 billion. Whether that flows to shareholders, results in lower prices, or gets tied up in courts remains to be seen.
A different way to think about agency in long term health & philanthropy
Heart Health in Women: Signs of CVD
Heart disease is the leading killer of women and it often goes unrecognized because the warning signs are different than they are for men. After menopause, a woman's heart disease risk rises sharply as estrogen drops. By the mid-60s, women's risk can equal or exceed men's. But because symptoms don't match the "classic" signs of a heart attack, they often get dismissed or misdiagnosed.
What to watch for that's different in women:
When to call 911 immediately: Sudden chest discomfort, shortness of breath, one-sided weakness, trouble speaking, or new confusion. Don't wait to see if it passes.
The bigger issue: Women have historically been underrepresented in heart disease research, which means doctors have less data tailored to female physiology. That's a real gap and it's part of why symptoms often get missed.
Practical takeaways: Know your blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood sugar numbers. Talk openly with your doctor about menopause and how it affects your heart. And share this kind of information with the women in your life - awareness genuinely saves lives.
To learn more, go to: Heart Health in Women: Signs of CVD
Although the war in Iran is not over and we have yet to see a return to normalcy in the energy markets, the stock market is looking past this conflict and rising to new heights. This is being driven by strong Q1 company earnings and consumer spending. Despite the fact that prices on everyday goods are rising and consumer sentiment is at an all time low, consumer demand hasn't fallen and investors are optimistic that companies will continue to be profitable in the near term. Much of this optimism is relying on companies performing better than expected during turbulent conditions, so don't take it for granted.
While the Iranian conflict may still be far from concluding, it looks like the Fed drama is coming to a close. Now that the investigation into Powell has been dropped, it is expected that Kevin Warsh will be approved by the Senate and installed as the new Fed Chair in the coming months. Powell's future is still unknown and he may choose to remain on the Fed Board of Governors until 2028, which would allow him to continue to be a voice in the room determining Fed policy.
Lastly, unless you run a company that imports goods, don't expect to get any tariff refunds. Even with the CAPE portal now open, the refund process is likely to be drawn out and for funds to trickle back into the economy. Furthermore, I wouldn't be surprised if President Trump announces new tariffs using other methods than the IEEPA approach that was ruled illegal. Given that tariffs are one of his signature economic policies, I don't think that we have seen the last of them.
Have a nice week ahead!
Kevin