A preface to the newsletter: This was a shortened trading week due to the Good Friday holiday, but that didn't deter the volatility, with stocks and oil prices swinging both directions. Geopolitical chaos is driving the markets and will continue to do so until we see some light at the end of the tunnel of this conflict. Stay disciplined, don't let headlines drive you mad, and invest with an eye to the long term rather than the day-to-day.

Additionally, I believe that planning for a long life means more than managing the financial side of it. It means thinking seriously about the quality of that life: the health, vitality, and freedom that make wealth meaningful in the first place. That's why I'm proud to partner with the Longevity Science Foundation (LSF) to bring longevity science and long-term health planning into this newsletter alongside financial planning. Over the coming issues, the LSF, led by President & CEO Joshua Herring, will share insights from the frontier of longevity research - science separated from marketing, where philanthropic capital is making a difference, and how you can be part of it. This week and next will feature an introduction to LSF and their mission, and then we will focus on specific health issues. My goal in partnering with LSF is to help share knowledge concerning both personal and financial wellness, so we can all live better. Please let me know if there are any specific health and wellness topics that you would like me to include in future newsletters.

Happy Easter!

Kevin

April 5, 2026

My Thoughts on the Market

Weekly Edition

How did the markets do?

  • Stocks had a wild week that started rough but ended strong, with the S&P 500 finishing up about 2.6%. The big rally came Tuesday after reports suggested Iran may be open to ending the war, reversing much of the selloff of the previous days.
  • Bonds held steady as investors waited for clarity. There is much debate over what will happen with interest rates. Earlier this year investors expected three quarter-point interest rate cuts, whereas now the market is pricing in a 52% probability of a rate hike by the end of 2026 due to the inflationary impact of rising energy prices.
  • Despite the stock market bounce this week, it's been a rough start to 2026. This has been the worst three-month stretch in nearly four years, driven largely by the Iran conflict and subsequent surging oil prices.

    • What headlines moved the markets?

    The Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz remain the #1 concern.

    The conflict, now in its sixth week, has disrupted roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. Gas prices have climbed past $4 per gallon nationally (I recently paid $6.30 per gallon here in Clayton, CA). The IEA, the world's energy watchdog, called this the biggest oil supply disruption in modern history.

    Stock markets rallied sharply on Tuesday when ceasefire signals emerged, however oil prices jumped during President Trump’s speech on Wednesday when no clear ending was outlined. The most important thing right now is not to let daily headlines drive decisions. The situation is fluid, and overreacting often causes investors lose money.

    The March jobs report came in much better than expected.

    The U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs last month, nearly 3x what economists had predicted, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. Health care and construction jobs were the most plentiful.

    A resilient job market is good news. Despite all the chaos, the underlying economy has shown surprising durability. The strong jobs number also likely keeps the Fed policy on hold for now, meaning interest rates will probably stay where they are through the next meeting at the end of April.

    Corporate earnings and deal activity provided some positive news and a refreshing distraction from geopolitics.

  • Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment in Marvell Technology, continuing the AI technology boom.
  • McCormick is in talks to acquire Unilever's food business for over $15 billion, showing a healthy appetite for mergers and acquisitions.

    • Quote of the week

    Today’s war harkens back to David and Goliath. Iran has a seemingly unlimited supply of cheap bombs loaded onto drones and speedboats like rocks to sling, while our defenses are measured in the millions of dollars per shot.

    "Near term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks, likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East." - Fed Chair Jerome Powell

    The Fed is walking a tightrope between fighting inflation and supporting the economy during wartime uncertainty. While oil price spikes are concerning, Powell emphasized that these disruptions may be temporary, which is why they're holding rates steady for now. Many economists are now forecasting rising inflation ahead, however the Fed wants to see how the geopolitical situation unfolds before making any major policy changes.

    Personal Finance: How to plan for rising inflation
    Disclaimer: This is general educational information and not intended as financial advice.

    Current CPI, as of February, remains stubbornly at 2.4%. Although this is down significantly from the highs of the past several years, many economists suggest inflation could surprise at levels exceeding 4% by the end of 2026. The Congressional Budget Office has revised projections upward, specifically citing the inflationary impact of new trade policies, and most consensus models indicate inflation will remain significantly above the Fed’s 2% target through 2026.

  • It’s important to keep in mind that these figures were calculated prior to the recent energy crisis arising from the Iran conflict this past month.
  • Sticky inflation may force the Fed to choose between hiking rates to cool demand or accepting higher inflation as the "new normal".

    • What can we, as consumers and investors, do in our daily lives to manage rising prices?

  • Create a monthly budget and revisit it regularly. Prioritize expenses into needs, wants, and wishes. You don’t have to reduce expenses immediately, but this process will make it easier to determine where to cut back if you are feeling the pinch down the road. It is much easier to modify behavior if you are measuring it.
  • Keep a six month emergency fund in a high yield savings account that can be easily drawn upon if needed. Think of this as your “self insurance” giving you wiggle room if prices increase unexpectedly. However, it’s important not to keep more than six month’s worth of expenses in savings, because the interest earned on savings accounts will likely be less than the rate of inflation unless the Fed raises rates.
  • Avoid investing in fixed rate, low yielding investments that will lose purchasing power relative to inflation, such as Treasury bills or CDs. Inflation typically leads rates, meaning that it will rise faster than interest rates, and a 3% bond or CD that was perceived as safe is suddenly losing money in a 4% inflation environment. The exception to this are specialized inflation adjusting bonds, such as TIPS and I Bonds.
  • Stocks are a natural hedge against inflation since companies can pass the costs through to the consumer. Invest in stable companies in boring sectors with strong “pricing power” (the ability to pass price increases through to the consumer without losing demand for their product). I like to refer to these as the toothpaste-and-toilet-paper companies whose products we will consistently continue to purchase regardless of the price or greater economic conditions. Sectors like consumer staples, healthcare, energy, insurance, and commodities tend to have resilient demand in the face of rising prices. Look at your personal budget and the things that you feel are necessities, and then invest in the companies that make those goods.

    • The Longevity Science Foundation

    A different way to think about agency in long term health & philanthropy.

    The Longevity Science Foundation is a US-based 501(c)(3) nonprofit founded in 2022 by a team of successful biotech venture capitalists. Having spent careers at the intersection of science, tech, and investment, the founding team identified the single biggest gap in driving meaningful health outcomes: research - early-stage, prevention-focused science that could change the trajectory of how we age before disease ever takes hold.

    The LSF was built to close a critical gap in research funding and acceleration. It uses a global network and infrastructure to source, diligence, fund, and accelerate underfunded research across three verticals:

  • Age-related disease

  • Women's health
  • Aging science

    • The LSF guides philanthropic capital, with a deliberate focus on academic research settings - where the majority of innovation happens, yet traditional funding is scarcest. Current and prospective work include cardiometabolic health research at the University of Oxford, novel neurodegenerative disease prevention at the University of Copenhagen, and projects spanning Harvard, Yale, Massachusetts General Hospital, Imperial College London, and many more.

    The foundation deploys 100% of donations directly to research. Its founding team covers all operational costs, so no philanthropic dollar is absorbed by overhead.

    The Problem Worth Solving

    As a society, we've been conditioned to treat Alzheimer's, cancer, and cardiovascular disease as the natural costs of living a long life. The LSF operates from a different premise: these are not inevitabilities. They are, in many cases, conditions that early prediction and prevention science can meaningfully intercept — if given the resources to do so.

    The Trusted Voice in a Noisy Space

    The longevity industry has a credibility problem. Products, protocols, and claims proliferate faster than the science behind them. The LSF's role in education, as a nonprofit with no commercial stake in outcomes, is to serve as a truth broker: analyzing ideas from a rigorous scientific framework, separating evidence from marketing, and making that accessible to anyone who wants real answers.

    The goal isn't to sell longevity. It's to make the science clear enough that the noise becomes obvious.

    To learn more, go to: https://longevity.foundation/

    Conclusion

  • Geopolitical events will likely continue driving short-term market volatility, but history shows that markets eventually look past these disruptions to the underlying economic fundamentals. Don't focus so much on the cause of disruptions, but rather the long term effects.
  • Don't let the daily headlines spook you into making emotional investment decisions. A tweet, an announcement, even a hint of a ceasefire, can cause the markets to move. All eyes are on the outcome of this conflict.
  • Follow the Boy Scout motto: be prepared in case of rising inflation. You will not regret having a budget, emergency fund, and a sound portfolio, even if inflation doesn't rear it's ugly head again.

    • Have a nice week ahead!

    Kevin