A preface to the newsletter: It was a good week for the markets, driven almost entirely by a single remarkable day. Friday's combination of the SpaceX IPO and Iran peace deal progress gave investors something to cheer about after last week's rough stretch. However, the week also delivered a reminder that the underlying inflation challenge has not gone away.
In this week's newsletter I cover the CPI report and what it means for Warsh's first Fed meeting next week, the Iran deal progress and whether this time is different, and the SpaceX IPO - the biggest market event of the week. In the Personal Finance section I explain why I did not invest in the SpaceX IPO and what the data says about buying into the biggest, most hyped new stocks on their first day of trading. I also have the latest from the Longevity Science Foundation's Maria Corlianò, PhD, on the changes to women's bodies during menopause and treatment solutions.
Lastly, on a more personal note relating to my financial planning practice - my wife and I are expecting our first child in September. There are many benefits to running my own practice except that I cannot take a prolonged leave of absence, so instead I will be scaling back my hours for the first couple of months until we get settled into a routine. My current clients are always my top professional priority, therefore I will be pausing taking on any new clients after August 1st in order to manage my workload once the baby arrives. If you, or anyone you know, are considering inquiring about becoming a client of mine, then please reach out before the August 1st deadline.
As always, please don't be shy about sharing any feedback and please feel free to forward this on to anyone else who might be interested in reading it.
Have a nice week ahead,
Kevin
Stocks
Stocks stopped the bleeding from last week as all three indices finished largely flat for the week. There were two factors that hit the brakes on the market's skid: the SpaceX IPO generated enormous excitement and positive sentiment across the market, and separately, President Trump's claim of a breakthrough in Iran peace negotiations sent oil sharply lower. However, the week was not without turbulence. Wednesday's CPI (Consumer Price Index) report showed inflation running at 4.2% year-over-year, which briefly rattled bond markets and pressured stocks mid-week.
Bonds
Bonds had a complicated week, pulled in two directions. When Wednesday's CPI report showed inflation at 4.2%, and Treasury yields spiked as investors accepted that the Fed will need to keep rates elevated. Then Friday's Iran peace deal news sent oil sharply lower, which eased some inflation fears and helped yields settle back. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at approximately 4.50%, roughly flat with the prior week despite the mid-week volatility.
Oil
Oil was a significant market driver again this week - and for the first time in a while, it moved in the right direction. Crude fell approximately 6% for the week, closing near $84 per barrel, on reports that President Trump's claims of a breakthrough in Iran peace talks. If a deal is actually signed and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, then lower energy costs would be helpful for inflation, for the Fed's flexibility on interest rates, and for the American consumer. I remain cautious though: we have heard this announcement before and have yet to see any sort of substantial peace agreement.
SpaceX goes public with the biggest IPO in history
History was made Friday when SpaceX began trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. The company priced its shares at $135, raising $75 billion in the largest initial public offering ever recorded. The stock opened at $150, surged to a session high of $168.75, and closed at $161.11, up 19% on its first day. At that closing price, SpaceX's market capitalization is approximately $2.1 trillion, putting it within striking distance of Amazon ($2.5 trillion) and above Tesla ($1.6 trillion).
I'll share my honest perspective on the SpaceX IPO in the Personal Finance section below. I will explain why I did not invest and why I believe the discipline required to pass on this one is actually the more interesting financial story than the IPO itself.
May CPI comes in at 4.2%, indicating that inflation isn't going away
Wednesday's CPI report for May was a reminder that the inflation problem has not been solved. Headline CPI rose from 3.95% in April to 4.2% in May year-over-year, the highest reading in three years. The primary culprit was energy: gasoline prices jumped 7% in a single month, pushing energy costs up 23.5% since May of 2025. The good news is that core inflation (which strips out food and energy) came in at 2.9%, actually a slightly lower than prior months. Still, 4.2% headline inflation is not what anyone in the "let's lower interest rates" camp wanted to see.
We should take May's CPI report with a grain of salt though. If the Iran peace deal results in a meaningful reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and energy prices continue the decline we saw this week, then June's CPI could look very different. Energy prices are the most volatile component of inflation, and a reversal in oil prices would show up in the data quickly. The Fed knows this and will not overreact to one month's reading. Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting is this coming week, and I expect the committee to hold rates steady and signal patience.
Iran peace talks: a breakthrough, a deadline, and lower oil prices
I feel like Bill Murray in the the movie Groundhog Day when writing about Iran peace talks, but this week's chapter is more constructive than last week's. President Trump announced that a breakthrough had been reached, and Iranian officials are echoing the same point. I'm cautiously hopeful this time, given the G7 context and the administration's specific timeline... but I'm also not holding my breath.
"We believe the company [SpaceX] is significantly overvalued, and investors will have the opportunity to buy in at a more attractive price following the IPO." - Nicolas Owens, Senior Equity Analyst at Morningstar, commenting in advance of the SpaceX IPO
Morningstar is not known for hyperbole. It is one of the most respected independent investment research firms in the world, and I frequently read their reports and analyses. Their analysts are paid to value businesses based on what the companies are actually worth, not what investors hope they might eventually earn. When Morningstar says a company is "significantly overvalued", we should pay attention.
Their math on SpaceX is striking. Morningstar's discounted cash flow model valued SpaceX at approximately $780 billion, or $63 per share - a whopping 53% discount to the $135 IPO price! In other words, they believe investors who bought SpaceX at the IPO price paid roughly twice what the business is worth based on realistic projections. Their analyst noted that neither of SpaceX's key engineering bets (a rapidly reusable Starship rocket and commercially viable orbital data centers) have been proven, and assigned a 7% probability to the "moonshot" scenario where both succeed and justify a $2 trillion valuation.
Paying twice what something is worth is not a good investment strategy. Morningstar's point is not that SpaceX is a bad company, rather it's that the price you pay relative to what a business can realistically earn is the most important variable in determining whether you make money. Just because SpaceX is an exciting business, does not mean that it is a good investment. I will go into more detail on why I passed on this one in the Personal Finance section below.
Why I Didn't Invest in the SpaceX IPO
It is rare that a single stock dominates the conversation among finance nerds like myself and the rest of the world (who have more important things to think about). But this week, SpaceX was that stock. I received more questions about it than almost any other investment in recent memory, and the answer I gave every client was the same: I did not invest my own money, and I do not recommend it at the current price. Here is exactly why, point by point.
The valuation is disconnected from reality
SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, a 33% increase from the year before. While that is genuinely impressive, the company went public at a valuation of $1.77 trillion, approximately 94 times its annual revenue. Let me put that in perspective. When Google went public in 2004, it was valued at roughly 7 times its annual revenue. When Meta (then Facebook) went public in 2012, it was valued at approximately 20 times revenue. SpaceX is priced at a ratio that assumes the company will dominate not just the satellite internet business, but rocketry, space-based AI data centers, Mars colonization, and whatever other moonshots Elon Musk decides to pursue next. A business can be genuinely transformative and still be a bad investment at the wrong price. At 94 times revenue, nearly everything has to go right - and continue going right for a very long time. At $135 per share, based on current revenue, you would have to wait 94 years just to make back what you initially paid.
It is actually three businesses in one, and only one of them is profitable
When you buy SpaceX stock, you are not buying a single business, you are buying a bundle of three very different companies. The first is Starlink, the satellite internet business, which generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025 and is legitimately profitable. Starlink is a successful business with actual customers, growing subscriber counts, and real pricing power. If I could buy Starlink by itself at a reasonable valuation, I would definitely be interested. The second business line is the rocket launch segment (Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy), which generates roughly $4 billion in revenue and has positive cash flow. Another profitable business, although one not quite as attractive as Starlink. The third business consists of Starship, xAI, space-based data centers, and Mars colonization. This segment is currently losing significant money, about $2.5 billion per quarter, and its commercial viability has not been demonstrated. The problem is that you cannot buy Starlink or Falcon 9 separately, you have to buy the whole bundle including the loss-making futurism division, and the valuation implies that the speculative bets are worth more than the proven businesses.
The aspirational goals are genuinely exciting but also genuinely uncertain
In all fairness to Musk and SpaceX, Starlink has already done something remarkable: it has connected 10 million subscribers with satellite-based internet, including in remote and conflict-affected areas of the world where no other infrastructure reaches. That is an impressive, world changing achievement. The Falcon 9 rocket is arguably the most reliable commercial launch vehicle ever built, and SpaceX has disrupted the traditional aerospace industry in meaningful ways. However, the "data centers in space" concept remains unproven, the reusable Starship has not achieved the flight rates necessary to make the economics work, and Mars colonization... sounds cool, but it is not a business plan.
History says most hyped IPOs don't live up to the first day's excitement
This is the part that does not get enough attention. Studies consistently show that roughly 64% of IPOs underperform the S&P 500 in their first year of trading. The average first-day "pop" of 18% fades to roughly 3% by month twelve. The reason is structural: on IPO day, institutional investors who got in at a discount are selling into the excitement of retail buyers who couldn't buy in earlier. Insiders are prevented from selling their shares at first, but eventually are allowed to (lock-up periods typically last for 90 to 180 days after the IPO), which creates additional selling pressure just as the initial excitement fades. And then, quarter after quarter, the company has to prove its valuation through actual earnings results. SpaceX closed up 19% on day one at $161. And keep in mind that that is not a 19% gain for most retail investors, who bought into the excitement at prices well above the $135 IPO price. If past is prologue, then I believe Morningstar is probably right: better entry points will come.
The bottom line
Passing on the SpaceX IPO is not the same as believing SpaceX will fail. I believe Starlink is a revolutionary business and that SpaceX has changed the aerospace industry. What I do not believe is that the current stock price reflects anything close to a rational or even moderately optimistic assessment of what the company is worth. The most important rule in investing is not "buy exciting companies", it is "buy good assets at fair prices." Excitement is not a substitute for math.
A different way to think about agency in long term health & philanthropy
What Changes With Menopause: Health Shifts, Their Impact, and How to Live Well
Maria Corlianò, PhD
Menopause isn't just the end of menstruation. It's a biological pivot triggered by the sharp drop in estradiol, the body's most potent estrogen. Because estradiol supports blood vessels, bones, metabolism, the brain, pelvic tissues, joints, and more, its loss sets off a cascade of changes across nearly every major system. The article maps each of them.
Heart and blood vessels: estrogen helps keep arteries flexible and LDL cholesterol in check. When it falls, arteries stiffen, LDL rises, inflammation increases, and blood becomes more prone to clotting, raising the risk of heart attack, stroke, and the stiff-heart type of heart failure most common in postmenopausal women. Women often experience atypical symptoms (nausea, fatigue, jaw pain) that delay care.
Bones: estrogen keeps the bone-building and bone-breaking process in balance. After menopause, bone breakdown outpaces rebuilding, causing the microscopic struts inside bone to thin and disconnect. The result is fracture risk, hesitancy in movement, and loss of independence. Strength training, calcium and vitamin D, and several medications (bisphosphonates, denosumab, anabolic agents) form the treatment toolkit.
Metabolism: without estrogen's help directing where and how the body stores fuel, fat shifts to the belly, insulin becomes less effective, and the full cluster of metabolic syndrome (high blood pressure, high blood sugar, poor lipid balance) becomes more likely. Resistance training and protein distribution across meals are the most powerful interventions, sometimes alongside medication.
Brain and mood: estrogen acts as a signal booster and energy helper for the brain. Its loss can cause the familiar "brain fog," but also raises the risk of anxiety, depression, and over time, cognitive decline. Poor sleep (driven by night sweats and undiagnosed sleep apnea) compounds the problem. Treating sleep disruption often clears the mental haze more than anything else.
Pelvic and urogenital health: tissues in the pelvic area and urinary tract are packed with estrogen receptors. When estrogen falls, they thin and dry, causing pain, urinary urgency, and recurrent infections. This is extremely common and very treatable. Local estrogen, DHEA preparations, and pelvic floor physiotherapy all help significantly.
Other systems affected include joints (cartilage breaks down faster, inflammation rises), skin (collagen thins, healing slows), eyes (dry eye becomes more common), gums (periodontal disease accelerates), and cancer risk (particularly hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer and endometrial cancer, influenced by body fat converting hormones to estrogen after menopause).
The practical message throughout is consistent: a diagnosis is the beginning of action, not the end of options. Strength training, sleep hygiene, screening on schedule, and building a care team across specialties all produce meaningful results. The article closes with a simple framework; track your numbers for two to four weeks, pick one specific change to test first, set a follow-up date, and repeat.
To learn more, go to: What Changes With Menopause: Health Shifts, Their Impact, and How to Live Well
Improvements in the war with Iran and subsequent oil prices falling are good developments for the American economy, for inflation, and for the Fed's ability to adjust interest rates. If those things hold, the second half of 2026 has a plausible path to being better than the first half. I am cautiously optimistic, and will be watching next week's Fed meeting and the Iran situation with equal attention.
The SpaceX IPO generated more investor excitement than almost any event I can remember in my career. My phone was busy all week with clients asking whether they should buy. The answer I gave them is the same answer I would give you: I did not buy it, not because I think SpaceX will fail, but because being priced at 94 times revenue, the math simply does not work. Staying disciplined during moments of maximum excitement is one of the most valuable and difficult skills in investing. As Warren Buffett likes to say, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful" - and I'd rather miss the rocket ship launch than be stranded on the moon.
Have a nice week ahead!
Kevin