A preface to the newsletter: I spent the past week on vacation with my wife, Mikaela, and our Golden Retriever, Moose, in the small town of Monte Rio on the Russian River. It was a wonderful week of exploring the region, fly fishing, watching wildlife, and relaxing by the river. Playing fetch with a dog who loves to swim is one of life's simple pleasures! If you ever have the chance to visit the area, I strongly recommend staying at the Boho Manor; it's not a fancy high-end hotel, but the rustic charm and riverside amenities are second to none.
In this week's newsletter I cover SpaceX's stock price decline since the IPO, Bank of America's shocking interest rate forecast, and the inflation data that prompted it. I also explain what a rising interest rate environment means for your bond portfolio and what to do (and not do) about it. In this week's Longevity Science Foundation spotlight, I review an article on trendy dietary tips (aka "health hacks") and the scientific evidence behind the claims.
Lastly, on a more personal note relating to my financial planning practice - my wife and I are expecting our first child in September. There are many benefits to running my own practice except that I cannot take a prolonged leave of absence, so instead I will be scaling back my hours for the first couple of months until we get settled into a routine. My current clients are always my top professional priority, therefore I will be pausing taking on any new clients after August 1st in order to manage my workload once the baby arrives. If you, or anyone you know, are considering inquiring about becoming a client of mine, then please reach out before the August 1st deadline.
As always, please don't be shy about sharing feedback and please feel free to forward this on to anyone else who might be interested in reading it.
Have a nice week ahead,
Kevin
Stocks
It was a week of sharp divergence. The Nasdaq fell approximately -5%, its worst weekly decline in several months, while the S&P 500 slid nearly -2.4%. The Dow however, gained roughly 0.1%, a small move that provides some insight into where investors are putting their money.
When technology stocks selloff hard while the Dow holds up, it usually means money is rotating from high-growth, expensive stocks into more defensive, value-oriented businesses. Banks, industrials, consumer staples, and healthcare all outperformed the technology sector this week by a wide margin. It was not a bad week if you owned companies other than technology stocks.
Bonds
It was a positive week for bonds, which is counterintuitive given the headlines this past week. Bank of America issued a forecast calling for three interest rate hikes before year-end, and Thursday's PCE (personal consumption expenditures index) inflation report came in at 4.1%, a three-year high. You might expect those two data points to cause a selloff in bonds, however the opposite occurred. The reason is oil: with crude approaching $69 per barrel, the long-term inflation picture is improving even as near-term inflation data remains hot. Bond investors are looking past the current inflation readings and pricing in a world where falling energy costs pull inflation lower over the next several months, potentially reducing the number of times the Fed will need to raise rates.
Oil
Crude fell to approximately $69 per barrel by Friday, a five-month low and a roughly 30% decline from this year's peak above $100. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to approximately 75% of pre-war volumes, however that may be threatened by the recent Iranian strikes on Bahrain and two ships transiting the Strait this past week. If oil holds near $70, the inflation story for the second half of 2026 changes meaningfully from the current scenario. That's a big "if" though.
SpaceX crashes 16% in a single day
On the day of its IPO two weeks ago SpaceX (SPCX) closed at $161, then briefly surged to an all-time high of $225 in the days that followed, and subsequently collapsed -16.4% in a single session. This occurred on Monday when the company announced its first-ever bond offering: $25 billion in senior notes, implying that the company needs to raise even more cash than it received from it's record-breaking stock IPO. The stock price bounced around the remainder of the week but ended down near $153, not far from it's opening IPO price. This means that nearly everyone who has invested in SpaceX since the shares went public have lost money so far. Believe it or not, I sometimes get tired of telling investors "I told you so".
Bank of America announces forecast of three interest rate hikes before December
On Monday morning, Bank of America issued a research note that sent shivers through the markets. BofA now forecasts three quarter-point interest rate hikes by the Fed before the end of 2026. If enacted, this would raise the federal funds rate from its current 3.5%-3.75% range to 4.25%-4.5%. What is shocking is that as recently as last week, BofA was forecasting no rate hikes at all for 2026.
So what changed? It's a combination of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish press conference at the June 17th meeting and Thursday's PCE data. The PCE index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) came in at 4.1% year-over-year for May, the highest reading since April 2023. According to BofA, the combination of a hawkish new Fed Chair and stubborn inflation means that the Fed is done cutting, and it is likely to start hiking.
I want to offer a counterpoint: this would be an unusually aggressive move for the Fed. I believe BofA's forecast represents the outer edge of the hawkish scenario, not the most likely outcome. The key variable is oil. If crude stays near $70 or lower for the next several months, energy will go from being a major driver of inflation to being just a drag on it. The June and July inflation readings could look dramatically different from May's if energy prices stay where they are now. I expect the Fed to remain on hold through September unless we see two or three more months of hot inflation data, and the oil story will significantly impact those readings.
That said, if the Iran deal fractures, energy prices spike again, and inflation stays above 4% into the fall, then the Fed will have to act. This is why the next 60 to 90 days are, in my view, the most important period of the year for investors.
"The Fed's inflation problem has gotten unambiguously worse." - Aditya Bhave, Senior U.S. Economist, Bank of America, announcing the forecast for three rate hikes
Bhave was describing something specific: the gap between where inflation is and where the Fed needs it to be. The Fed's official inflation target is 2% on the PCE measure and we are currently at 4.1%. That is a gap of more than two full percentage points, and over the last three months the trend has been moving in the wrong direction. Inflation has been accelerating.
What does this mean for you as an investor? It means the "higher for longer" interest rate environment is not going away, and may be getting more intense rather than less. Every dollar you have in a long-duration bond fund is carrying more interest rate risk than it was a year ago. Every dollar in a money market or short-term bond fund is quietly earning more as rates rise. The monetary policy environment is tightening in a way that affects nearly every asset class, and understanding the mechanics of that tightening is critical to investing intelligently.
What Rising Interest Rates Mean for Your Bond Portfolio
It's a commonly understood among investors that bond prices fall when interest rates rise. But when you are staring at a week where BofA is forecasting rates rising by 75 basis points and the Fed's preferred inflation measure just hit a three-year high, that abstract knowledge needs to be translated into something more specific and actionable. What actually happens to your portfolio? What should you do? What should you avoid? Let me walk you through it.
The basic mechanics: why bond prices fall when interest rates rise
A bond, in a general sense, is a loan. When you buy a bond, you are lending money to a government, municipality, or corporation in exchange for a fixed series of interest payments over a set period of time, after which you get your initial investment back (called the maturity date). The interest rate paid on that bond (called the coupon rate) is locked in at the moment the bond is issued, and the initial price of the bond is typically $1000 (referred to as the par value). Here is the problem: if you buy a bond today with a 4.37% coupon and interest rates then rise to 5%, your bond suddenly becomes unattractive if you wanted to sell it before the maturity date. Why would someone purchase your 4.37% bond at the par value when a brand-new bond is available at 5%? They would not, unless you offered your bond at a discount below the $1000 par value. This is why bond prices and interest rates move in opposite directions.
Duration: why the length of time until maturity matters
Not all bonds are equally sensitive to interest rate changes. The measure of that sensitivity is called duration, expressed in years. A bond with a duration of 2 years loses approximately 2% of its market value for every 1% rise in interest rates. A bond with a duration of 10 years loses approximately 10%. This is why long-duration bonds (ten-to-thirty year maturities) have been among the worst-performing assets in rising rate environments, while short-duration bonds (one-to-three-year maturities) absorb rate increases with far less damage. This is the result of the opportunity cost of owning a lower paying bond than what the market is offering; the longer you own it, the greater the total amount of interest you are missing out on. If BofA is right and rates rise by 0.75% this year, long-duration bonds could lose 7% to 10% in market value whereas short-duration bonds might lose 1% to 2%.
The silver lining: what rising rates actually mean over time
Here is the part most investors miss, and it is important. Rising interest rates are painful for bond prices in the short run, but they are actually good for bond investors over the long run. When rates rise, the interest payments you receive from existing bonds can be reinvested at higher yields, and when your bonds eventually mature, you can roll that principal into new bonds paying higher income than before. For a retiree living on bond income, higher rates mean higher income going forward, not lower. Higher rates only cost you money if you sell your bonds prior to maturity.
This is why panic-selling your bond portfolio in response to rising rates is often exactly the wrong move (panic-selling is rarely the right move in any scenario, for that matter). When you sell bonds because their market value has declined, you lock in the loss and forfeit the improved income that comes from reinvesting at higher yields. Unless you need the cash immediately, selling bonds because prices are temporarily down is similar to selling a rental property because comparable homes in the neighborhood are listed at lower prices. If you were not planning to sell, the market price movement does not affect your financial plan.
What to actually do in this environment
Favor shorter maturities on any new bond purchases or CDs. Rather than buying a long-term bond right now, invest in the short-term range instead. This reduces your price sensitivity to further rate increases while still locking in yields that are meaningfully above where they were two years ago. Short-term instruments are your friend; money market funds, T-bills, and short-term CDs are currently paying yields close to 4%.
Also consider bond laddering: building a portfolio of bonds with staggered maturity dates (one, two, three, four, and five years, for example. This allows money to become available at regular intervals, which can be reinvested at whatever the prevailing rate is at that time. A ladder prevents you from committing all of your capital to one rate at one moment in time, and it provides a steady stream of reinvestment opportunities as the rate environment evolves.
The bottom line
The key distinction to keep in mind is the difference between a bond's market value and its purpose in your financial plan. If your bonds are providing income or are a counterweight to stock market volatility, then their day-to-day market price is less important than the role they play in your overall plan. A 75-basis-point rise in rates (if it actually happens) will hurt bond prices in the short term, but it will also improve the income available to investors going forward. Stay short on duration for now, avoid selling bonds simply because prices have declined, and consider laddering bonds/CDs. And remember: during a rising rate environment, bond investors are rewarding with more income for their patience.
A different way to think about agency in long term health & philanthropy
Longevity Snacks: Trick or Treat?
Maria Corlianò, PhD
Wellness influencers would have you believe a few pantry staples provide near-magical health benefits. The science is real but more grounded: these foods work best when they replace lower-quality options within an overall healthy dietary pattern, not when bolted on as "health hacks".
Extra-Virgin Olive Oil (EVOO)
The strongest evidence comes from the PREDIMED trial, where a Mediterranean diet with roughly 4 tablespoons of EVOO per day reduced major cardiovascular events versus a low-fat control. U.S. cohort data add a longevity angle: higher olive oil intake correlated with lower total and cardiovascular mortality, especially when replacing butter, margarine, or mayonnaise. There's also observational data linking EVOO intake with lower dementia-related risk, though not definitive.
Nuts and Seeds
Across large cohorts, higher nut intake consistently links to lower all-cause mortality and reduced cardiovascular risk. A small handful (about 30g) of unsalted nuts most days, replacing refined snacks or processed meats, is the evidence-aligned move. Seeds carry overlapping benefits but are less studied in isolation.
Berries
Higher anthocyanin intake (found in blueberries and strawberries) is linked to lower cardiovascular risk, better insulin sensitivity, healthier blood vessel function, and slower cognitive aging in large cohorts, roughly equivalent to about two years of delayed brain aging. Randomized trials with blueberry interventions showed improved memory and increased brain blood flow in older adults. Aim for about one cup per day, fresh or frozen, ideally replacing sugary desserts.
Cocoa and Dark Chocolate
The COSMOS trial tested standardized cocoa-flavanol capsules and found no reduction in total cardiovascular events but a roughly 27% reduction in cardiovascular deaths. The catch: processing matters more than the percentage on the label. Dutch-processing (alkalization) strips flavanols, so a high-percentage dark chocolate can still be low in beneficial compounds. Lead and cadmium contamination in dark chocolate is a real concern with significant brand-to-brand variability. Typical adult portions are unlikely to be risky, but keep servings moderate, vary brands, and favor producers with transparent testing. For polyphenol benefits, natural (non-alkalized) cocoa or a standardized supplement is more reliable than a chocolate bar.
Garlic and Alliums
Aged garlic extract shows modest, dose-dependent reductions in blood pressure and small improvements in lipids. Despite earlier signals, a comprehensive 2022 study found no convincing reduction in overall cancer risk from allium intake or garlic supplements. Use garlic and onions liberally as food; they add flavor, polyphenols, and prebiotic fiber with modest cardiometabolic benefits.
Summary
Make EVOO your default oil, eat a small handful of nuts most days, prioritize berries for polyphenols, choose natural cocoa over alkalized chocolate, and enjoy garlic for flavor and modest cardiometabolic nudges. The wins come from patterns, not superfoods.
Source: Corlianò, "Longevity Snacks: Trick or Treat?" (October 2025)
To learn more, go to: Longevity Snacks: Trick or Treat?
The two forces that will define the second half of 2026 spent this week in direct competition. On one side: PCE inflation at 4.1%, a daunting forecast for three interest rate hikes, and a Fed Chair who has made clear he is concerned about inflation. On the other side: oil at $69 per barrel and falling. Which force wins depends largely on whether the Iran nuclear negotiations produce a lasting peace over the next 60 days.
If BofA is right and rates rise dramatically before year-end, the bond market will feel it. But as I explained above, that is not the same as a failure of your financial plan, provided you are positioned correctly. Favor short maturities for new purchases, consider laddering bonds/CDs, and resist the urge to panic-sell. The interest rate environment is uncertain and the best portfolios are built for uncertainty, not based on a single forecast. Build a portfolio you can live with when you're wrong, not just one that looks brilliant when you're right.
Have a nice week ahead!
Kevin