A preface to the newsletter: Happy Memorial Day! I hope that you are getting to enjoy some time with family today and remembering those that gave their lives in service of America.
In this week's newsletter I touch on some of the recent earnings and interest rate news, and explain the basics of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) process. That topic is especially salient given the major, record-breaking IPOs on the horizon and I will share my thoughts on specific company's IPOs as more information becomes available in the coming weeks. Also in this week's Longevity Science Foundation spotlight, I summarize an article they wrote researching the purported benefits (or lack thereof) of some of the trendy water additives being marketed by health influencers. The theme of this week's newsletter is: caveat emptor - buyer beware!
As always, please don't be shy about sharing any feedback and please feel free to forward this on to anyone else who might be interested in reading it.
Have a nice week ahead,
Kevin
Stocks
The stock market had a bumpy week that ended on a high note. Stocks fell early, rattled by rising interest rates and Middle East tensions, but recovered to finish mostly up. The Dow set a new all-time high on Friday, and the S&P and Nasdaq both ended the week in mildly positive territory as well.
Bonds
Bonds had a tougher week. Interest rates on long-term government bonds climbed to their highest levels in over a year on renewed inflation concerns, which pushed bond prices down. By Friday though, rates pulled back a bit as things calmed down.
Oil
Oil prices dipped below $100 per barrel and are currently hovering in the mid-$90s.
Nvidia reported record sales...but the stock barely budged
The chip company at the center of the AI boom reported sales of nearly $82 billion for the quarter, blowing past expectations, and yet the stock dipped slightly afterward. I'm keeping an eye on this, but I wouldn't read too much into it, the underlying business is genuinely impressive. When a company's stock is already priced for perfection, even great news can cause a "sell the news" reaction. In this case investors anticipated a big beat, so when it arrived there was nothing left to surprise them. Effectively the news was already baked into the stock price before it was announced.
Interest rates spiked early in the week, then pulled back
At one point, the 30-year Treasury bond yield briefly touched 5%, which is a level that tends to make investors nervous. Higher long-term rates makes borrowing more expensive for everyone, from homebuyers to the government. I'm watching bond yields closely; the move partly reflected ongoing worries about the national debt and a new government spending bill making its way through Congress. These are real issues that affect all of us.
SpaceX formally filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC
This will be the largest public offering in stock market history. The filing revealed that Starlink (SpaceX's satellite internet service) is the financial backbone of the business, generating $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025 and now serving over 10 million subscribers. The company is targeting a valuation of $1.75 to $2 trillion, with a public debut expected as early as June 12. Beyond rockets and Starlink, the filing shows SpaceX is also betting heavily on AI, though these ventures are still in early, costly stages. Analysts note that SpaceX is currently unprofitable across most of its main business lines, meaning investors who buy in at the IPO are essentially making a long-term bet on future growth.
"I think that all three companies' [initial public] offerings will go fine. But in the aftermath, I think there will be challenges that these companies will have to face, [these companies grew so large] without any real push back or oversight...It's only when they go public that you start to recognize what their weaknesses are." - Aswath Damodaran, the "Dean of Valuation" and Professor of Finance at NYU's Stern School of Business, commenting about the upcoming IPOs for SpaceX, ChatGPT, and Anthropic (Claude)
The easy part is the IPO itself. When a hot company like SpaceX goes public, there's usually enormous excitement and demand from investors. The stock sale will almost certainly succeed, people will buy into the hype.
The harder part comes after. Private companies like SpaceX have operated for years in a protected bubble. They don't have to share detailed financial information with the public, they face minimal scrutiny from outside shareholders, and nobody is grading them quarter by quarter. Elon Musk can make bold predictions (rockets, AI, colonizing Mars) without having to justify every dollar to Wall Street. The moment a company sells shares to the public though, it has new obligations: quarterly earnings reports, shareholder votes, analyst scrutiny, media pressure, and SEC oversight. Weaknesses that were easy to hide or ignore as a private company suddenly get a very bright light shone on them.
How Does an IPO Work and Should I Invest in One?
A company starts life privately; owned by its founders, employees, and early investors like venture capital firms. At some point, those early owners want to cash out and/or the company wants to raise more money to grow. So they "go public" by listing on an exchange and selling shares to regular investors for the first time - that's an Initial Public Offering (IPO).
The IPO process goes roughly like this: the company hires big banks (called underwriters) to help set a price and drum up interest among their clients. They then go on a "roadshow", which is essentially a sales pitch tour to large institutional investors. A price is determined based on demand, shares are sold privately, and a date is set for the stock to begin trading on an exchange like the NYSE or Nasdaq. Once the stock is listed on an exchange anyone with a brokerage account can then buy those shares and the initial private investors can sell theirs.
How companies change after going public
This is where it gets interesting - before the IPO, a private company answers to almost nobody outside its inner circle. After the IPO though, everything changes:
Quarterly reporting: The company must now publish detailed financials every 90 days. Every revenue miss, every cost overrun, every weak guidance statement becomes public and moves the stock price.
Shareholder pressure: Thousands of new owners, many of them large institutional funds with their own performance pressures, want results now, not down the road. This can push management toward short-term thinking.
Analyst scrutiny: Wall Street analysts will pick apart every number, every business segment, and every executive comment. Weaknesses that were quietly tolerated in private get amplified publicly.
Regulatory oversight: The SEC requires strict disclosure rules. Related-party deals, executive compensation, and governance structures all become public record.
Companies that thrived on secrecy and long-term moonshot thinking (SpaceX is a perfect example) suddenly have to explain themselves to people whose time horizon is the next earnings call.
What investors should watch out for
IPOs are exciting, but they carry specific risks that are easy to overlook:
Valuation vs. reality: IPO prices are set to maximize what the company raises, not give prospective shareholders a good bargain. SpaceX's rumored $1.75–$2 trillion valuation is based almost entirely on future potential, not current profits. You're paying for a dream, and dreams don't always come true.
The lockup period: Insiders (founders, employees, early investors) are typically prohibited from selling their shares for 180 days after the IPO. When that window expires, a flood of selling can hit the stock hard. It's worth marking that date on your calendar.
Voting power imbalance: Many high-profile IPOs use a dual-class share structure where the founder retains outsized voting control. Musk will retain control of 85% of SpaceX's votes. As a regular shareholder, your ability to influence the company is essentially zero.
The hype premium: IPOs generate enormous media attention, which inflates demand artificially. Studies consistently show that IPO stocks, on average, underperform the broader market over the first three to five years. The best purchase price is rarely the IPO price on day one.
Early financials are often ugly: Companies frequently go public before they're consistently profitable, betting that growth will eventually produce earnings. That can work out, remember that Amazon was unprofitable for years, but it requires patience and tolerance for volatility during the interim.
An IPO isn't a guaranteed windfall; it's the beginning of a company's public life, with all the scrutiny and pressure that entails. For most individual investors, especially those in or near retirement, the safer approach is to let the dust settle after an IPO, watch how management performs under public pressure for a few quarters, and buy in once the story becomes clearer. The excitement of an IPO is rarely worth the risk it carries.
A different way to think about agency in long term health & philanthropy
Do Water Additives Help You Live Longer?
The article, written by two PhDs at the Longevity Science Foundation, cuts through the wellness marketing around three trendy water products and asks a simple question: does any of it actually help you live longer?
Hydrogen water has some plausible lab science behind it, but human studies are inconsistent and show only small effects. There's also a practical problem: hydrogen is a gas that escapes quickly once a container is opened, so you may not be getting much of it anyway. The verdict is that it's harmless but unlikely to move the needle on longevity.
Alkaline water (pH 8–9) is perhaps the most popular category, but the core marketing claim - that it "alkalizes" your body - doesn't hold up. Your blood pH is tightly regulated by your lungs and kidneys, and a glass of water can only nudge your stomach acidity for a few minutes before it resets. Some short studies show changes in bone breakdown markers, but no long-term benefits like reduced fracture risk have been demonstrated.
"Structured" or H₃O₂ water gets the harshest verdict: there's no credible evidence that a stable, drinkable "special" water exists that improves health. The authors call it a myth and say to skip it entirely.
The bottom line from the article is refreshingly straightforward: the best water is simply safe, clean water that tastes good and keeps you drinking enough. No bottle replaces the basics (sleep, diet, and exercise) and none of these trendy additives show real longevity benefits.
To learn more, go to: Do Water Additives Help You Live Longer?
When it comes to IPOs, I like to quote the 90s hip-hop group Public Enemy, "don't believe the hype". The company roadshow and media attention prior to going public is designed to generate as much enthusiasm as possible to drive up the share price. But take a lesson from PT Barnum and don't be one of the many suckers falling for the con. Question the motives of anyone encouraging you to buy into an IPO - if it's such a good deal, then why are the initial investors and insiders trying to sell out? Bring a healthy dose of skepticism to every investment decision.
Have a nice week ahead!
Kevin