A preface to the newsletter: Markets had a strong week as a potential Iran peace deal pushed stocks to fresh all-time highs. Micron Technology's 19% single-day surge brought AI optimism back into the headlines, and Goldman Sachs made waves by raising its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000. In the background though, the arrival of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair is quietly reshaping expectations for where interest rates go from here, and not in the direction that President Trump (or borrowers) were hoping for.
As always, please don't be shy about sharing any feedback and please feel free to forward this on to anyone else who might be interested in reading it.
Have a nice week ahead,
Kevin
Stocks
Stocks had an impressive week, driven almost entirely by hope. News that a U.S.–Iran peace deal may be imminent sent oil prices tumbling and gave investors reason to believe the worst of the energy shock could finally be nearing its end. The S&P 500 climbed to new all-time highs, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose even more sharply. The Dow also set a new intraday record though it lagged the other two indices this week. Overall it was a good week to be a diversified investor.
Bonds
Bonds provided some relief this week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which had spiked to a 16-month high of 4.70% just last week, pulled back to around 4.47% as near-term inflation fears eased somewhat. When yields fall, bond prices rise, so holders of longer-duration bonds caught a small tailwind. However, the bond market remains deeply uncertain about where rates are headed under the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, with traders now pricing in the possibility of rate hikes rather than cuts by year-end. Bond investors are watching this new Fed leadership very carefully.
Oil
Oil prices fell sharply, dropping more than 5% in a single session to close under $90 per barrel after Iran agreed to restoring commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within one month. I'm cautious though: until ships are consistently moving freely again, I would not assume energy prices will fall back to where they were prior to March.
Trump says an Iran peace deal is "largely negotiated"
The potential for a peace agreement with Iran continued to dominate the headlines this week. President Trump announced that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is "largely negotiated" and would be announced soon. Iranian state media followed by saying the country is committed to restoring commercial traffic through the strait to pre-war levels within one month. Markets reacted exactly as you would expect: oil prices dropped, stocks rallied, and bond yields pulled back from recent highs.
Although I believe things are moving in the right direction, I would not count my chickens just yet. We have been through multiple ceasefires already, and the fundamental disagreements between the U.S. and Iran (particularly around nuclear matters) have not been resolved. The pattern of this conflict has been one step forward, half a step back, and I expect more of the same before a lasting resolution is established. That said, even a partial and sustained reopening of the Strait would be meaningfully good for inflation, energy prices, and the Fed's flexibility on rates.
Micron Technology hits $1 trillion in market cap
Micron's stock surged 19% in a single session this week, pushing the chipmaker's market capitalization above $1 trillion for the first time in its history. This is especially impressive considering that one year ago Micron was worth roughly $108 billion. In twelve months it has grown nearly tenfold. The catalyst was a wave of analyst upgrades and accelerating demand for high-bandwidth memory chips. Micron is one of only three companies in the world (alongside Samsung and SK Hynix) capable of manufacturing these chips at scale, which gives it enormous pricing power in a world where every major tech company is racing to build AI infrastructure.
I find this more indicative of market sentiment than as an investment signal. A company growing from $108 billion to $1 trillion in a year is either a genuine revolution in business value, or it reflects how much speculative heat has built up in AI-adjacent stocks. I suspect it is some of both. The underlying demand for AI memory chips is real. But whether the current stock price fully reflects that reality, or has gotten meaningfully ahead of it, is the important question investors should be asking.
Goldman Sachs raises its S&P 500 year-end target to 8,000
Goldman Sachs lifted its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 from 7,600 to 8,000 this week, citing an exceptionally strong first-quarter earnings season. The firm projects a 24% increase in earnings over last year, and notes that AI-related companies are expected to account for roughly half of that growth.
Investors should take this prediction with a large grain of salt though. Wall Street forecasts are revised regularly, and several months ago Goldman had a much lower target before the market bounced back from the March lows. These projections are educated guesses, not guarantees.
The S&P is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 20.9, above both its five-year and ten-year historical averages. A lot of good news is already priced in. Meaning that if earnings disappoint, if the Iran situation deteriorates again, or if the Fed moves more aggressively on rates than the market expects, that 8,000 target could look overly optimistic in a hurry.
Kevin Warsh's first weeks as Fed Chair (it isn't the dovish era markets hoped for)
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair this month, taking over from Jerome Powell. The transition is significant, and markets are still working through what it means for interest rates. Here is the irony: Warsh was nominated because President Trump wants lower rates, but markets are now pricing in the opposite because of inflation caused by the Iran conflict. This week's drop in oil prices was a welcome reprieve, but core inflation remains sticky. Warsh has been an inflation hawk in the past, and his first order of business appears to be establishing credibility on that front rather than bowing to political pressure. I'll go into more detail about what this means for your portfolio in the Personal Finance section below.
"With inflation above the Fed's 2% target for five years and counting, the committee can't be complacent." - Kevin Warsh, new Chair of the Federal Reserve
Five years of above-target inflation is not a blip, it is a structural challenge that quietly erodes the purchasing power of every dollar you hold. The Fed's 2% inflation target is not an arbitrary number either; it is the sweet spot where prices rise slowly enough that people don't feel squeezed, but fast enough to keep the economy from tipping into deflation. The fact that we have been above that target since 2021 is precisely why Warsh is signaling caution rather than the rate-cut enthusiasm that President Trump would prefer.
For investors, this matters in a very direct way. If Warsh holds rates steady, or raises them to reassert price stability, then mortgage rates stay expensive, credit card interest stays high, and the incentive to hold cash and short-term bonds remains real. The good news is that higher rates also means higher yields on savings accounts and money market funds. The not-so-good news is that it puts additional pressure on bond prices and could dampen the kind of stock market optimism we saw this week. I believe Warsh will prioritize his credibility as an inflation fighter over political convenience. That means the "higher for longer" interest rate environment is likely to remain for the rest of 2026.
What a New Fed Chair Means for Your Portfolio
The Federal Reserve sets the short-term interest rate (known as the Fed Funds rate) that every other borrowing cost in America is essentially built on top of. When the Fed raises rates, borrowing gets more expensive everywhere. When the Fed cuts rates, borrowing gets cheaper, which leads to more spending and investment, and a hotter economy. The person who chairs the Fed has enormous influence over this process, and Kevin Warsh's early signals (that he is not in a hurry to cut rates and that inflation is his primary concern) are already reshaping financial markets in ways that affect you directly. Here is how rising or persistently high rate expectations ripple through different parts of your financial life.
Bonds become complicated, but not catastrophic
If rates go up from here, then newly issued bonds will pay higher interest than existing ones, making the bonds you currently hold worth less on paper if you tried to sell them before maturity. This is the fundamental inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices. The key phrase is "on paper." If you hold a bond to maturity, you still receive every interest payment and get your principal back in full, ergo the interim price fluctuation only matters if you need to sell early.
For retirees holding bonds primarily for income, the strategy is straightforward: hold on, keep collecting your interest payments, and resist the urge to sell just because the paper price dipped. Longer-duration bonds (those maturing 10, 20, or 30 years from now) are far more sensitive to rate changes than shorter-duration bonds, and in a period of uncertainty about rate direction, keeping maturities on the shorter side gives you more flexibility.
Stocks feel the impact too
Higher interest rates puts downward pressure on stock valuations because future earnings are discounted at a higher rate. Think of it this way: if a risk-free Treasury bond is paying close to 5%, investors need a meaningfully higher expected return from stocks to justify taking on the additional risk of owning equities. That mathematical pressure pushes stock prices down even when underlying business results remain strong. Growth stocks, particularly the AI and tech companies that have driven the stock market this year, tend to be most sensitive to this effect, because so much of their perceived value is speculation of earnings projected years into the future. In contrast to growth stocks, value stocks and dividend-paying companies tend to hold up better in rising rate environments, which is another reason diversification across sectors matters so much right now.
Your cash and savings work harder
Here is the silver lining that does not get nearly enough attention: higher rates are good for savers. Money market funds, high-yield savings accounts, Treasury bills, and short-term CDs are all paying meaningfully higher yields than they did during the near-zero rate era from 2009 to 2021. If you are holding cash as part of your financial plan (I recommend all of my clients keep an emergency fund as part of a bucketed strategy) that cash is actually earning something material right now. It's important to make sure that your cash is in an account that is keeping pace with prevailing rates rather than sitting in a standard bank savings account paying next to nothing. See Bankrate.com's survey of current savings account rates for some perspective of what is currently being offered by different banks.
Mortgages and variable debt feel the squeeze
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains well above 6% nationally, even if you have a near-perfect credit score greater than 800. If you carry a variable-rate mortgage, a home equity line of credit, or significant credit card balances, persistently high rates are a meaningful drag on your cash flow every month. This is also a large part of why the housing market has remained sluggish this year; affordability is strained for new buyers, inventory is tight, and prices are sticky as a result.
The bottom line
The Fed sets the tempo for the economy, and Warsh's tempo appears to be "steady and vigilant" rather than the aggressive rate-cutting that some investors had been expecting. The most important thing you can do in this environment is understand how your portfolio is positioned relative to interest rate sensitivity, make sure your cash is earning competitive yields, and avoid making large bets that assume rates will move dramatically in either direction. The Fed does not telegraph its moves, and anyone who tells you they know exactly where rates are going is either blowing smoke at you - or smoking something.
A different way to think about agency in long term health & philanthropy
The Estrogen Reset: How Menopause Changes the Pace of Aging in Women
Menopause is a biological pivot that reshapes how women age. Estrogen (primarily estradiol during reproductive years) supports brain flexibility, bone strength, cardiovascular health, metabolic balance, and immune function throughout the body. When ovarian function declines, that support fades, and aging accelerates across multiple systems simultaneously.
There are three types of estrogen: estradiol (dominant pre-menopause, strongest signal), estrone (dominant post-menopause, weaker signal made in fat tissue), and estriol (pregnancy-specific). The sharp drop in estradiol at menopause, not a gradual decline, is the key driver of accelerated aging in women.
Mechanically, estrogen helps cells resist oxidative stress, supports mitochondrial efficiency, tempers inflammation, keeps blood vessels flexible, slows bone loss, and supports brain connectivity. When it falls, none of these fail outright, but all tip toward faster deterioration. The result: accelerated bone loss, arterial stiffening, metabolic narrowing, sleep disruption, cognitive risk, and urogenital changes.
Half the population undergoes a predictable, time-bound acceleration of aging that has been historically under-researched and under-funded. We need more research focused on better biomarkers, smarter hormone therapies, non-hormonal interventions, and lifestyle precision tools tailored to women's changing physiology.
Practical takeaways for women: track symptoms, get baseline labs (lipids, glucose, blood pressure), discuss bone density timing, prioritize resistance training and protein intake, and talk to a clinician about hormone or local therapies if symptoms are disruptive.
To learn more, go to: The Estrogen Reset: How Menopause Changes the Pace of Aging in Women
The thread connecting this week's market story to the Personal Finance topic is the same one that has been running through most of 2026: the cost of money. Oil prices affect what you pay at the pump and at the grocery store. The Fed's interest rate policy affects what your bonds are worth, what you pay on your mortgage, and what your savings account actually earns. The two stories are linked: if inflation falls (which could happen if we see energy prices decline after a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz) then that provides maneuverability to Warsh to eventually ease rates. But we are not there yet. Until oil has consistently settled lower and core inflation trends back toward 2%, I expect the Fed to remain patient.
It was a genuinely good week for investors who stayed the course. However optimism is doing a lot of heavy lifting at the moment, and optimism has a habit of getting ahead of reality. For now, the prudent posture is the same one I keep coming back to: make sure your portfolio is built for multiple scenarios, not just the optimistic one. There is a version of reality where the Iran deal closes cleanly, inflation cools to 2.5%, and Warsh begins cutting rates by the fall - which would be excellent for bonds, stocks, housing, and the broader economy. I wouldn't bet against that happening...but I wouldn't bet everything on it either.
Have a nice week ahead!
Kevin