November 30, 2025

My Thoughts on
the Market

Weekly Edition

How did the markets do?

• Stocks had a strong Thanksgiving week, with major indices posting solid gains and nearly recovering all of the losses from earlier this month.
• Bonds also had a positive week with modest gains.

What headlines moved the markets?

• Consumer confidence fell to its lowest point since April.
  • The holiday shopping season is an important barometer of consumer sentiment. I'm watching to see if people actually spend less or if this is just short-term worries talking.
• The job market continues to soften, making a December Fed rate-cut more likely.
  • We're still nowhere near recession levels of unemployment.
  • Counterintuitively, this can be construed as good news for your portfolio since lower rates typically help both stocks and bonds.
• This week was characterized by the “bad news is good news” sentiment.
  • Declining consumer confidence increased bets on a December Fed rate-cut.
  • Mixed performance in major tech/AI companies drove investment into other sectors of the market, benefitting diversified portfolios.
  • Online Thanksgiving spending rose 5.3% to $6.4 billion according to Adobe Analytics and early Black Friday data showed consumers shifting more to online shopping rather than in-store.
  • Currently the unemployment rate is at 4.4% as of September 2025 (latest official data). This is up from 4.3% in August and represents the highest level in four years, but is still relatively low by historical standards.
  • The job market is cooling but not collapsing - hiring rates have fallen to pre-pandemic lows of 3.5%, making it a difficult time for job seekers.

Quote of the week
“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” — Benjamin Franklin

• Understanding what is happening in the market, your portfolio, and your taxes is key to earning the most money possible.
• The greatest threat to an investor is often themselves, because we are emotional creatures and react emotionally. Knowledge, comprehension, experience - these are the tools that allow us to control our emotions.
• Investing can be like poker, there is randomness and decisions that must be made with limited information. Playing a thousand games of poker does not ensure that you will win more games, however understanding probabilities and the odds that you have a winning hand does.
• Similarly, managing taxes is like playing chess, where each piece has different rules. Knowing how to navigate those rules and combining different permutations of moves allows you to think around corners and design a winning strategy.

Personal Finance: Tax Loss Harvesting

(I am repeating this topic since it’s nearly year-end and we recently had volatility)
Disclaimer: taxes are complicated and unique to each individual. Consult with your advisor before making any major tax decisions. This is general educational information and not intended as financial advice.

• With year-end just a month away, the clock is ticking on realizing any remaining gains/losses on this year’s taxes.
• Capital gains, the profits realized when you sell an investment, are taxed differently than income, such as your salary, interest, or dividends.
  • Much like how tax deductions can reduce your income, realizing capital losses can offset capital gains.
• Capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than income taxes (in most cases) and can even be eliminated if planned correctly.
• Example: you buy stocks A and B each for $10.
  • Stock A appreciates to $12 and you sell it. You have realized $2 in gains, and you will (in most cases) owe a 15% tax on that $2 of gains.
  • Stock B declines to $8 and you sell it. You have realized $2 in losses and owe no taxes on the loss.
  • At the end of the year, your gains and losses are tallied up and you are taxed on the net amount.
• It's important to differentiate between short term and long term capital gains/losses: any investment held for less than one year is considered short term.
  • When using losses to offset gains, you must first net out each category. Short-term losses are used to offset your short-term gains, and long-term losses are used to offset long-term gains.
  • If you still have losses after netting out each category, then the remaining losses can be used to offset gains in the other category. Meaning that short term losses can be used to offset long term gains, but only after all of the short term realized gains have been netted out.
  • Lastly, once all gains have been offset by losses, if you still have realized losses this year then you can deduct up to $3,000 from your ordinary income and carry any remaining losses forward to the next year.

Conclusion

• Bad news doesn’t always translate to a selloff in the market, so it’s wise not to jump to conclusions when we receive negative data.
• Truly successful investors understand what they are investing in, how market movements will impact those investments, and which tax strategies to employ in order to keep as much of their investment earnings as possible. Making money in the stock market is easy, it’s keeping it that’s the hard part.
• We only have one month left in 2025, so consider taking advantage of year-end tax strategies like Roth conversions and tax loss harvesting before the window of opportunity closes.

Have a nice weekend!

Kevin